Sunday, January 11, 2009

Review of NABCL #1 Draft Picks

Season 1 - Scott Harang
Scott Harang
San Antonio
Missions (Viva the Puffy Taco)
Age: 31B/T: R/R
Born: Oakdale, MN
Position(s): 3B/IF/OF/DH
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Harang is a three-timer All-Star 3B for Frazz’s San Antonio Missions. Scott has been a Mission throughout his fine career, starting out as a SS in a bit of a forced fit but now much more comfortabel at the hot corner. He’s been hobbled this season by a bum hamstring and he hasn’t reached his full potential as a hitter. His best season was #9 when he hit 30 homers, scored 101 runs, knocked in 111 runs more and broke .900 OPS for the first time in his career. Not a superstar, but a good pick who has been a San Antonio mainstay.

Season 2 - Tomas Villano
Tomas Villano
Trenton
Thrashers
Age: 27B/T: R/R
Born: Brookville, IN
Position(s): 2B/OF/DH
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A longtime Thrasher, Villano has been the Trenton starting 2B for the last five seasons. A three-time All-Star and former MVP (for season 7), Tomas has amassed a very nice .938 career OPS and he brings a fine balance of hitting and power along with better than average eye, glove and wheels. His MVP season was his best, amassing 47 homers, 124 runs, 129 RBIs and an impressive 1 .098 OPS. Since cracking the ML lineups, Villano has led tmf12’s team to the playoffs in three of four seasons. One of the better 2B in the NABCL and a good first pick in the season 2 draft.

Season 3 - Mikey Knotts
Mikey Knotts
New Britain
Block Heads
Age: 26B/T: R/R
Born: Winter, WI
Position(s): 1B/COF/DH
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After a horrendous first season with the New Britain franchise, Verd selected slugging 1B Knotts with the first pick of the season 3 draft. A former All-Star, Mikey is a better athlete than your garden variety first bagger, with excellent baserunning skills and a little speed to boot. He is a fine fielder as well, but he makes his living as a hammer an he averages just under 50 dingers a season. While not one of the elite power hitters in the NABCL, Knotts has been remarkably steady and durable, once going four straight seasons without missing a game. Forced to pick his best season and we’ll lean toward #9, wher e he even swiped 13 bases to go along with 61 HRs, 128 runs scored, 143 Ribeyes and a .927 OBS. Mikey’s consistency marks him as a very good number 1 pick.

Season 4 - Rob McConnell
Rob McConnell
Charlotte
Queen's Men
Age: 25B/T: R/R
Born: Dardanelle, AR
Position(s): RF
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Poised to become a premier NABCL slugger, Queen’s Man McConnell is now in his third big league season and he continues to show the steady year over year progress that is the hallmark of the best players in the game. Erran’s brought the Rfer along slowly with season long stops at every minor league tier before making the jump to the Show in season 9. Last season;s was Rob’s best so far, with 48 longballs, 105 RBIs and three more runs scored. He is a better than average runner but his glove work is a bit of a concern as is his overall health; no DL trips so far but his time will come. He is tracking this season to a 1.058 OPS and he should do even better in the next few legs. If he stays healthy, he looks lile a top notch draft pick.

Season 5 - Devon Russell
Devon Russell
Norfolk
Loyalists
Age: 24B/T: R/R
Born: Gilroy, CA
Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH
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A former All Star in season 9, this shortstop has been a bit of a disappointment for a number 1 overall pick. Russell has been the rodent’s starting SS for three seasons now, but a long DL stay last year for a (wince with me) torn groin slowed down Devon’s progress. An average fielder at best, Russell makes more bad plays than good ones. He seems to have leveled off as a hitter, consistently around a .860 OPS, a decent enough number for most players, but a tad underwhelming for a player of his assumed promise. At 24, there is still time to mature, but we aren’t liking all the signs we are seeing.

Season 6 - Tony Trinidad
Tony Trinidad
Wichita
'weed
Age: 27B/T: L/R
Born: Haledon, NJ
Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH
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After a lengthy minor league career, 27 year old Trinidad has finally made it to the Big Time and he is just now getting comfortable in his second ML season. Tony has played 2B and 3B in addition to his natural position of SS in the Bigs, suggesting that he hasn’t really settled into a home quite yet. Wisaprentice selected the local boy for his NY Empire franchise, so oldave inherited him and moved him and the rest of the crew to Witchita in season 7. That first season in NY was brutal, with a rapid progression through the minors to AAA level, where he was stuck for three and a half-seasons. In 111 games last season, he enjoyed a decent but not great .863 OPS while stealing 27 homers and mashing 22 dingers. Still, he’ll need to step up big-time if he wants to reach his potential.

Season 7 - Kenny Herges
Kenny Herges
Iowa City
Shuckers
Age: 25B/T: S/R
Born: Stillwater, MN
Position(s): SS
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Season 7 saw a shortstop taken number 1 for the third season in a row and like Russell and Trinitad before him, Iowa City’s Herges is still a work in progress (albeit one that is a bit further along than his predecessors). More of a hitter than a fielder, Kenny was rushed to the Shuckers ML roster after only 47 games in Hi A ball and the rush to produce took an initial toll on the young Shucker. But his progress has been steady and he is currently playing the best ball of his young career, tracking a .960 OPS and hitting at a very productive .346 clip. Herges can run a little bit too but he remains a bit of a defensive liability with 51 errors. Still, his steady progress suggests an up and comer who may yet see a few All Star games and other accolades.

Season 8 - Victor Fernandez
Victor Fernandez
Pawtucket
Patriots
Age: 23B/T: R/R
Born: Onalaska, WI
Position(s): P (SP2)
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The first pitcher ever taken with the first pick in a NABCL draft, the pride of Onalaska, Wisconsin has been a bit of a bust so far in two ML seasons. Fernandez is primarily a two pitch pitcher – fastball and slider – and he averages a homer a game as well as two free passes each time out. His stamina is fine but the durability is too low for a workhorse-type and we’re a bit concerned with his health ratings too. Still, his WHIP is dropping nicely even if the dingers keep his ERA going in the wrong direction (5+ and counting). Fletchkd and his Patriots of Pawtucket havehit some rough times over the last five seasons and so far Victor hasn’t been the secret to a winning season. But season 11 has started a lot better for them and we’re hoping Fernandez turns out well.

Season 9 - Damon Wolf
Damon Wolf
Wichita
'weed
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: West Simsbury, CT
Position(s): P (LRA)
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A tough season 8 gave the Wichita franchise another shot at a #1 pick and oldave went for pitching this time around. The Wolf looks like someone who may have staying power. Dave is bringing him along slowly – he’s only in Hi A ball right now – but his game is getting better all the time and his stats get better at every higher level, not worse. Right now, he’s tossing a .83 WHIP and a measley 1.15 ERA. His K/BB ratios have been insanely good and he doesn’t give up many long balls. For now, Dave is getting him plenty of work (and lots of wins) as a long reliever but he projects as a #1 ML starter in a few seasons.

Season 10 -Stan Redman
Stan Redman
Pawtucket
Patriots
Age: 21B/T: L/R
Born: Camden, SC
Position(s): C/DH
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Pawtucket was back picking #1 in the season 10 draft and settled on catcher Redman, a fearsome hitter who is already looking studly in the ML level in his second season of pro ball. Truth be told, we don’t see Stan the Man as a great game caller but his bat should help make up for any minimal impact he may have to the Patriots’ team ERA. In this, his first season in the Bigs, he already has 26 dingers in 58 games and he average a little more than a ribeye per game. Posessing a great batting eye to go along with all that power, this rookie is already clubbing at a 1.058 OPS clip and he is a major reason fletch and the gang are competing in the AL East. We like Redman to be a force for many years to come (though maybe as a first bagger or DH rather than a backstop). A great #1 pick for fletch.

Friday, January 2, 2009

At the 40 Game Mark: Your NABCL Top 10/Bottom 5

Top 10

1. Sacramento Terrible Twos (33-7) – NL West

The best pitching in the league by far and top notch hitting and fielding firmly place the Twos at the top. Yes, they are playing over their heads a bit – we don’t expect them to hold off Anaheim from the #1 spot all season – but this is a strong balanced roster and SMX is a smart and savvy owner. Watch out for a dip if Singleton returns to form further West though.

2. Anaheim Natural Disasters (29-11) – AL West

Our gut pick for #1 didn’t quite rule the numbers but we expect them to reach the pinnacle sooner than later. Harry Pena anchors one of the best staffs in the league and Tony Watanabe is having a big year. They are only second to Fargo in hitting and they are closing the pitching gap rapidly. Only the glovework is second tier. Anaheim is more than due to take the NABCL.

3. Fargo Roughriders (25-15) – AL North

The best hitting team in the land is surprisingly effective on the mound as well. (Let’s not talk about fielding, though.) Rudy Simms is running away with the AL MVP race (as a DH!) and the four-man rotation is working nicely. Still, the back end of the bullpen is a worry and we suspect that Fargo will give some back over the season.

4. San Antonio Missions (24-16) – NL South

Frazz and the Missions rely on strong pitching (4/5s of the rotation is excellent) and team speed. The bats are a bit above average too, but we think that the San Antonio success story has as much to do with playing in the weak NL South as the Missions’ hitters. Still, Frazz is a regular contender who, like zackaryl, is more than due.

5. Chicago Beast (23-17) – NL North

The Beast is just that: a beast, at least with the bats, where their adjusted stats put them neck and neck with Fargo for machismo bragging rights. The pitching has one or two bright spots but is only slightly above average. Fielding is not a strength at all. With Seattle coming up from behind, we expect the NL North to tighten and for the Beast to drop another peg or two. Still, bullet will contend all season.

6. Wichita ‘weed (23-17) – NL East

The ‘weed is like the Beast’s weaker brother. The bats aren’t quite as good but the pitching and fielding are a bit better than their neighbors to the North. But with a bullpen by committee and some expected inconsistency from the starters, we see a second half swoon for oldave and the gang, not dissimilar to last season. Trenton should catch ‘em soon.

7. Jacksonville Jackals (21-19) – AL South

The defending champs haven’t played very hungrily and it shows. The bats have been quieter than expected and they have definitely played down to their competition. Still, the pitching has been surprisingly strong given some free agent losses and they have good team speed and one of the best defenses in the league. They’ll be there in the end.

8. Portland Jacks (20-20) – NL West

Another underachiever, where one of the best pitching staffs in the game, buoyed by the best defense around, tries to keep dtrain in the game until the bats can warm up. The lineup is average but generally balanced and, with time, they should turn things around. Like the Jackals, the Jacks are too good to be this blah all season.

9. Seattle Salty Dogs (20-20) -- NL North

No team was a bigger Top 10 surprise when we ran the numbers than the Dogs, so much so that we changed the algorithm and tried again, and they still made the cut. (Mediocrity, thy name is NABCL.) Seattle is all about pitching and Safeco Field. The batting is generally sub-par and the fielding is okay, not great. Don’t get too settled here, Donald.

10. New Britain Blockheads (21-19) – AL North

Verd and his ‘Heads desperately cling to the Top 10 status, thanks to a balanced attack of competent components that are more than adequate but not really great. Still, like Seattle, they shouldn’t get settled as they generally perform poorly in their division and that will catch up to them. It was nice that the gang took the wild card last season, but this could be a hangover year.

On the Cusp: Memphis Maniax, Trenton Thrashers, Los Angeles Robins, Richmond Poor Men, Iowa City Shuckers

Bottom 5


28. New Orleans Crawdads (17-23) – NL South

Can’t hit, can’t field and the pitching – which is just average – can’t keep them in games to turn the ball over to Miguel Liriano, their best weapon. Tarasco is having aother nice year at first baseand Gary Quinn is having a career year, but it doesn’t look good for the ‘dads.

29. Charlotte Queen’s Men (15-25) – NL East

What the heck happened to the Men? After a major step forward last leg, they have reverted to form. We suspect that the bats are just cold and will start warming as we get closer to mid-year – Rob McConnell is starting to get loose and catcher Randall Perez is having a breakthrough season. And the pitching should improve a bit too, probably not enough for a true run, but enough to get out of the bottom 5. Still, a disappointing start for a team that thought they could contend this season

30. Louisville Legionnaires (16-24) – NL South

The Legionnaires are finally starting to hit – Bob Jenkins is having a break out year finally! – but the pitching remains a huge problem, with only Brian Lee holding his own as a starter. Still there are a couple of bright lights in the bullpen (alas, not a closer!) and we are hopeful that the meat of the order might carry Louisville out of the cellar.

31. El Paso Ultraviolence (13-27) – AL South

Reaper’s crew is nothing if not consistent: bottom 5 in hitting, in pitching and in fielding. Star Bump Boucher has underachieved all season long and only Larry Browne is pitching consistently well. The ‘violence have been heading downward for a couple of seasons now, but this is a going right off the cliff.

32. Boston Colonials (15-25) – AL East

Oh, how the mighty Randall has fallen! Saddled with the worst pitching in the league – and that is saying A LOT – the Colonials have no hope even with their overachieving bats (overachieving so far – they can’t stay this hot all season). Fenway is not this team’s friend. Joe May has been a bright light, but the tunnel these guys are in is mighty dark.

On the Cusp: Kansas City Baby Blue Soundcrew, Salem Gangbangers, Vancouver Loonies, San Diego Storm, Las Vegas Dust Devils